The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey for Q2 2008 forecasts continued positive hiring ahead in India
Mining & Construction sector employers indicate strongest hiring plans over the next quarter.
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The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey for the second quarter of 2008 released today revealed that the job market in India is expected to remain vibrant. Of the 32 countries and territories surveyed globally this quarter, hiring intentions among Indian employers continue to be among the most optimistic in the world with an overall Net Employment Outlook of +36%. This Outlook represents a moderate decrease of 6 percentage points since the first quarter of 2008, but year-over-year increase of 5 percentage points. Of the 5,279 employers surveyed, 37% expect an increase in staffing levels in the second quarter of 2008, 1% anticipate a decrease, and 54% are expecting no change. The Net Employment Outlook is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating total employment to increase and subtracting from this the percentage expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location over the next quarter.
Employers in all eight countries and territories surveyed across the Asia Pacific region anticipate positive hiring activity for the second quarter of 2008.
Commenting on the survey findings, Dr. Naresh Malhan, Managing Director of Manpower India said, “Indian employers continue to be positive yet increasingly cautious about their hiring intentions. The softening of the hiring pace for the second quarter can be attributed to uncertainty in some of the leading economies across the world resulting in volatility in equity markets, commodity prices, and exchange rates. In view of this, employers in India are placing more focus on increasing efficiency and productivity of employees in order to remain competitive in the market rather than on increasing staff strength.”
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, conducted for the twelfth consecutive quarter in India, reports that employers across all seven industry sectors in India are positive about their hiring intentions. Employers in the Mining & Construction industry sector report the most optimistic Outlook among all the seven industry sectors [+42%]. Employers in the Public Administration & Education and the Wholesale & Retail Trade sectors report the least robust Outlooks [both +31%]. Hiring intentions of employers in all seven industry sectors reveal quarter-over-quarter decreases in Net Employment Outlook, with the steepest decline in the Wholesale & Retail Trade industry sector [down 10 percentage points].
Dr. Malhan added, “Despite the downward shift in employer sentiment across six other industry sectors, the optimism of employers in the Mining and Construction sector remains buoyant. Employers in this sector predict the strongest hiring plans among all industry sectors surveyed because of ongoing public and private investments in Infrastructure sector. The spiraling growth in the construction sector is set to take India’s infrastructure standard to new heights.”
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey conducted in India includes employers across seven industry sectors: Finance/Insurance & Real Estate; Manufacturing; Mining & Construction; Public Administration & Education; Services; Transportation & Utilities; Wholesale & Retail Trade.
Sector Trends
Quarter-over-Quarter: Overall positive hiring intentions have been reported by employers in India. However, employers in all seven industry sectors report quarter-over-quarter declines in Net Employment Outlook. The strongest Outlook is observed among the employers in the Mining & Construction industry sector [+42%] while the weakest Outlook this quarter is seen among employers in the Public Administration & Education and Wholesale & Retail Trade sectors [both +31%], with employers reporting quarter-over-quarter declines of 7 percentage points and 10 percentage points, respectively. Employers in the Transportation & Utilities sector [+33%] expect a moderately slower hiring pace with a decline of 7 percentage points in NetEmployment Outlook. Employers in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector [+39%] forecast a dip of 3 percentage points in their Net Employment Outlook. Employers in the Services sector [+40%] and the Manufacturing [+33%] sectors have reported a moderate decline of 5 percentage points each in their Net Employment Outlook since the last quarter.
Year-over-Year: The comparisons reveal a year-over-year increase of 5 percentage points in the overall Net Employment Outlook. Employers in six of the seven industry sectors report increases in Net Employment Outlook with Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector employers reporting the largest increase in hiring activity by 18 percentage points. Employers in the Services and the Transportation & Utilities sectors both report an improvement of 7 percentage points. Employers in the Manufacturing sector report an improvement of 5 percentage points. Meanwhile, employers in the Wholesale & Retail Trade and the Mining & Construction sectors both reported relatively prosperous Outlooks with slight increases of 3 percentage points and 2 percentage points, respectively. The Public Administration & Education industry sector is the only sector
where employers report a decrease in hiring activity where a slight2 percentage point decline is reported.
Regional Trends
Employers in all four regions in India anticipate varied hiring intentions across industry sectors. Employers in the South expect the most robust hiring pace [+39%] among all four regions in Quarter 2, although the Outlook does indicate a slight decline of 2 percentage points over the previous quarter. Employers in the North anticipate brisk hiring activity with a Net Employment Outlook of +36%, where the Outlook has decreased by 5 percentage points over the previous quarter. Meanwhile, employers in the West report a Net Employment Outlook of +35%, a decrease of 8 percentage points compared to three months ago. Employment prospects are weakest in the East, where the Net Employment Outlook is +26%; among all regions surveyed, this represents the largest quarterly decline of 9 percentage points. Year-over-year comparisons reveal that three regions report an increase in Outlook, and one reports no change.
Global Results
The Survey released today revealed that second quarter hiring is expected to be positive in all of the 32 countries and territories surveyed. The most favorable second quarter hiring plans globally were reported by employers in Singapore, India, Peru, Romania, Costa Rica, Argentina, Poland, Hong Kong, Australia, Greece and South Africa, with those in Singapore, Hong Kong and Australia reporting their most optimistic hiring plans since the survey began there. Conversely, employers in Spain and Italy report the weakest job prospects in the next three months.
Employers in 16 countries and territories are reporting weaker hiring plans compared to the first quarter of 2008, while those in 6 are reporting improved hiring plans from one year ago.
Of the 17 countries surveyed in the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region employers in Romania, Poland, Greece, S. Africa and Norway are most optimistic about adding to their workforces. In contrast, hiring optimism among Irish and Spanish employers fell considerably from one year ago, with the Outlook in Italy and Spain being the weakest in the region. Across the Americas, employers in Peru, Costa Rica and Argentina are most optimistic about hiring in the next three months, while those in Canada are the least optimistic. Meanwhile, Mexican employers continue to report steady, upbeat hiring expectations.
In Asia Pacific region, employers in Singapore are the most optimistic with a Net Employment Outlook of +60% followed by those in India [+36%] while employers in China reported the weakest hiring forecast in the region for the third consecutive quarter. The forecasts for Singapore, Hong Kong and Australia were the most optimistic reported by employers since the survey began in these geographies in 2003.
Note to Editors
Full survey results for each of the 32 countries and territories included in this quarter’s survey, plus regional and global comparisons, can be found in the Manpower Press Room at www.manpower.com/meos. In addition, all tables and graphs from the full report are available to be downloaded for use in publication or broadcast from the Manpower Web site at http://www.manpower.com/library.
Note that in Quarter 2 of 2008, the survey adopted the TRAMO-SEATS model for seasonal adjustment of data. As a result, you may notice some seasonally adjusted data points change slightly from previous reports. This model is recommended by the Eurostat department of the European Union and the European Central Bank and is widely used internationally.
About the Survey
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforce during the next quarter. It is the most extensive forward-looking survey of its kind, unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area of focus. The Survey has been running for more than 45 years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employment activity in the world. The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is based on interviews with more than 55,000 public and private employers worldwide and is considered a highly respected economic indicator.
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is currently available for 32 countries and territories: Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, China, Costa Rica, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Guatemala, Hong Kong, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Peru, Poland, Romania, Singapore, Spain, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, the United Kingdom and the United States. The program began in the United States and Canada in 1962, and the United Kingdom was added in 1966. Mexico and Ireland launched the survey in 2002, and 13 additional countries were added to the program in 2003. New Zealand joined the program in 2004, China, India, Switzerland and Taiwan were added in 2005, and Argentina, Peru, Costa Rica and South Africa joined in 2006. The Czech Republic, Greece, Guatemala, Poland and Romania joined in 2008. For more information, visit the Manpower Inc. Web site at www.manpower.com and enter the Research Center.
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About Manpower India
Established in 1999, Manpower Services India Pvt. Ltd. is a subsidiary of Manpower Inc. With more than 600 consultants in 24 offices across 15 cities, Manpower India is one of the largest recruitment firms in India, and the market leader in IT, IT Enabled Services and Financial Services sectors. Manpower provides the complete range of HR services and solutions to clients, including permanent recruitment; temporary and contract staffing; managed services and outsourcing; employee assessment services; and training. Manpower’s unique proposition lies in the knowledge and expertise of caring for candidates through assessment, career guidance and training; and creating higher value for clients through unmatched delivery capability, flexibility of solutions and access to global best practices in people management. As part of its ‘candidate care and development’ culture, Manpower provides free access to online training to all candidates and staff through the Training and Development Center. Manpower India is building a strong reputation as an innovator and thought leader in the Indian HR industry. Each quarter, Manpower publishes the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey that forecasts employers’ hiring intentions for the next quarter, which has become the most authoritative survey of the Indian labour market. Manpower, as a socially responsible organization, has committed USD 1 Million towards building and operating vocational training centres for the purpose of rehabilitating victims of the tsunami in Nagapattinam district of Tamil Nadu. More information on Manpower India is available at www.manpower.co.in
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